Wealth & Finance June 2017

5 June 2017 UK Property Sales - the Calm before the Storm HMRC property transaction data does not reflect market uncertainty following the UK election fallout. James Allen, head of Walker Crips Alternative Investments, expects to see a big fall in the next quarter. “Property transactions show a slight fall this month, but expect to see around three times the deterioration in completed transactions for the next few months. “The seasonally adjusted transactions for May are about 3.3% lower than April, but the only thing remarkable about the latest data is that the seasonally adjusted transaction rate for the 2014, 2015 and 2016 calendar years are all within 0.5% of each other. Transaction data doesn’t reflect the bleak post-election UK out- look, and shows the danger of averages. “In May we had a huge lead for Theresa May in the opinion polls and we had a clear direction of travel on Brexit. Now we have a fatally weak- ened Prime Minister unable to pass the Queen’s Speech, and the prospect of a resurgence of UKIP in response to groundswell opposition to a perceived hard Brexit. Any market abhors un- certainty and the current political instability was unexpected, leaving the latest data short of time to reflect the new situation. “I had expected to see property transactions fall in May, reflecting a slight softening of the UK property market. I now expect transactions to fall by 10% or more from the April figure as sellers will be slow to respond to the risk premium that buyers will now price in.”