Polls close at 10pm GMT today. Sydney opens at the same time and closes at 6am GMT, while Tokyo opens at 11pm GMT and closes at 7am GMT. According to a number of media sources in the UK, the final decision will be announced around 7am GMT on Friday. A flurry of activity is likely between 4am GMT and 6am GMT. Since no exit polls have been commissioned, any early warning signs and emerging voter trends are going to have a real bearing on trade in Tokyo and Sydney.
As Sydney closes, Frankfurt will open at 6am GMT, followed by London at 7am GMT. In all likelihood, a Leave vote will see Sterling decrease in value by approximately 10% and a Remain vote will see it increase in value by approximately 5%. “A rightsizing is inevitable,” adds Secker. “And in a poetic twist of fate that no politician on either side of the debate could have orchestrated in a million years, time will have the upper hand. Together, Frankfurt and London will determine Sterling’s value the morning after the night before. Everything else will be history.”
New York will open at 12pm GMT and close at 8pm GMT. In all probability, based on many years’ experience, the European trend will continue stateside.
The weekend will create a “cooling-off” period, so there should be a degree of calm and purpose by the time Asia and Australia wake up on Monday morning. In the event of Leave winning the day, volatility will remain for some time to come. How long is anyone’s guess.
Secker believes now is not a good time to be trading the currency market. “It is like the Wild West out there. Leave/Remain is a gamble, and one can win big – or lose big. As a professional currency trader, I want reproducible strategies and systems that give me low risk and an edge over time. I am not in the business of betting on Lady Luck!”
However, he says currency traders who are brave enough to ride the wave should keep a close eye on their risk management strategies and trade within their limits. He also recommends putting strategies in place to mitigate any overnight risk, particularly from 10pm GMT on Thursday to 7am GMT on Friday, when clarity will be low and volatility will be high.
Secker is backing Remain.
