History of Systematic Global Macro
Systematic global macro managers have a track record of producing positive annual returns for more than three decades with low to negative correlations to traditional asset classes and hedge fund strategies. They can also be classified as global macro, managed futures, or trend-following/ CTA. The core methodologies used by systematic global macro programs are well-documented in academic and financial literature.
Why ‘Systematic’ Macro instead of Discretionary?
Systematic trading has significant advantages over discretionary styles. For example, one of the challenges faced by a discretionary trader is the control of emotions during critical points of market activity or personal performance. In contrast, systematic trading programs are emotionless and do not suffer from this issue. Investment decisions are based on decades of historical quantitative research and are carried out in a repeatable, systematic, disciplined manner.
Since they are almost or entirely automated, trading systems are easily scalable and can thus far more readily accommodate new markets or new investor capital. Finally, systematic programs are typically more broadly diversified than discretionary traders, both in the number of markets analysed and in the types of strategies employed.
– Portfolio Diversification – since its September 2003 inception, Red Rock’s SGM program has produced -0.08 correlation to stocks and 0.06 correlation to bonds.
– Long or Short exposure to over 70 globally diversified, highly liquid commodity & financial futures markets spanning all market sub-categories: grains, precious and base metals, energies, foods & softs, currencies, interest rates, bonds, and equity indices.
– Opportunity to be on receiving end of ‘Crisis Alpha’ – during the Great Financial Crisis (Sep ’07 – Feb ’09) our Systematic Global Macro program netted clients +75.52% returns, while U.S. stocks lost -48.14%, International stocks lost -51.92%, Commodities lost -43.69%, and Hedge Funds were down -17.01%.
– SMAs offered at client’s choice of broker. Daily pricing, transparency & liquidity.
– Regulated futures exchanges minimise credit risk and allow for standardised contract specifications.
– Margin requirements are generally significantly less than in the cash markets, creating an opportunity to use leverage effectively.
Key Return Drivers
– Futures often get incorrectly labelled as ‘zero-sum’ because for every buyer of a contract, there is a seller – and all contracts eventually expire worthless. While this is true of how futures contracts logistically work, it does not speak to the inherent return that can be mined from successful systematic futures trading. Hedgers, the very large group of market participants who wish to reduce their unknown future price risk, are continually willing to be on the receiving end of losing positions. This risk off-loading provides a risk premium for those skilled enough to be able to regularly capture it.
– Also, as highlighted by Behavioural Finance, many large market participants exhibit ‘herd’ behaviour and sub-optimal psychological biases.
How Red Rock Capital’s Systematic Global Macro Program works: g Basic statistics and quantitative analysis are used to put a framework around repeatable investor behaviour.
– The strategy was designed from the ground up to systematically capture the risk premiums made possible by hedgers and inefficient market participants who exhibit herd behaviour / biases.
– Technical data such as price, volatility, term-structure, and volume are statistically analyzed and trending environments in various markets are identified.
– If legitimate trending behaviour is identified, a long or short position is initiated in a market.
– Only a small amount of account equity is risked on each new position g Exits / stop-losses are pre-determined and aim to reduce risk and volatility.
– Winning trends are kept in the portfolio; losing trades are jettisoned to preserve capital.
– Over time performance has resulted in a payout profile that is similar to being long options; that is, the strategy experiences larger profits when a trend emerges, but relatively small losses when trends fail to materialise or reverse.
Red Rock’s edge, stemming from one of the founder’s training, is that we incorporate Probability Theory in a unique and effective manner that increases the risk-adjusted returns of our Systematic Global Macro program.
Why Red Rock Capital’s Systematic Global Macro?
Almost 13 years of proven net performance to investors – much of it when they needed it most. With all of the uncertainty in the current global marketplace such as China’s currency interventions, Brexit, Bank of Japan NIRP, and FED attempts to continue to normalise rates, high net worth investors would be wise to consider a strategy that is ‘long volatility’ – and that has shown to prosper during times when traditional asset classes have struggled the most.
About Red Rock Capital
Red Rock Capital is a multi-award winning commodity investment management firm. During 2016 Red Rock’s Systematic Global Macro Program will proudly celebrate its 13th anniversary. The firm is lead by Thomas Rollinger, most notably a devoted pupil and former protégé of quantitative hedge fund legend, Edward O. Thorp. Rollinger’s partner is Scott T. Hoffman, the original founder of Red Rock. Given recent developments with the firm, plus increasingly favorable market conditions, Red Rock is especially well-positioned to grow and thrive in the managed futures industry.